How to use OVATION for Iceland
The OVATION aurora model from NOAA SWPC shows where auroras are likely right now.
But Iceland sits right at the edge of the oval — so you need to know how to read it correctly.
What is the OVATION aurora model?
OVATION (Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and Online Nowcasting) is a
real-time model based on satellite particle data. It estimates the probability of visible aurora
in the Northern Hemisphere — updated every 5 minutes.
Each pixel’s brightness on the map shows auroral intensity. Green means faint; red and purple
mean energetic, likely visible displays.
How to read the OVATION map for Iceland
- Locate Iceland (near 64–66° N) at the edge of the bright oval.
- When the bright ring covers or passes over Iceland, aurora chances increase — even if the Kp is only 3–4.
- If the oval is above Greenland or the Arctic Ocean, you’ll need higher Kp (≥4) for visibility here.
- Always pair the map with live Northern Lights forecast to confirm local conditions.
How to read the OVATION map for Iceland
- Locate Iceland (near 64–66° N) at the edge of the bright oval.
- When the bright ring covers or passes over Iceland, aurora chances increase — even if the Kp is only 3–4.
- If the oval is above Greenland or the Arctic Ocean, you’ll need higher Kp (≥4) for visibility here.
- Always pair the map with live Northern Lights forecast to confirm local conditions.
OVATION works best when NOAA’s satellites are receiving continuous solar wind data.
Sometimes data is delayed or replaced by a Kp-driven forecast, which can be 3–6 hours old.
During these gaps, rely on:
- Aurora Reykjavík’s live feed (real-time Bz, Bt, and solar wind)
- Bz for Beginners (why –3 nT matters)
- Leirvogur spikes (local magnetic response)
